Friday, November 7, 2014

Be a smart trader even with the turmoil!!!

Everyone of us will surely feel nice to see the gas price go low...I remember the initial days when I first came to USA(in dec 2006) my husband used to fill the tank for about 18 bucks.Then slowly the gas price boomed to $55 to fill the same tank.Wow...We are the kind of family who go out all together whether to buy a milk can or even to gas station.So we managed our travelo-mania by cutting our spending on other things like restaurants,clothing stores etc.After 4 long years,am pumping for $38 with some fuel savings card.

Low fuel prices can help boost economic growth by reducing fuel bills and leaving consumers,companies with more money to spend on other things;it's like tax-cut.Low oil price means you can take a vocation or buy a new car, or buy a nice new home, or your boss can afford to give you a raise.We travelled to South Carolina couple of weeks ago;two surprising elements I personally like is agriculture and gas price.You can buy fresh produce directly from the farmers while you enjoying the cheaper gas price of $2.15 a gallon.From Pittsburgh we spent only $100 for the gas to reach our destination.

The average prices of gasoline,heating oil,diesel and jet fuel are all on track to the lowest in four years,giving drivers,travellers and fuel hungry companies a break.As a investor,you can invest in airline stocks since the lower fuel prices can boost their earnings forecast.

When energy prices fall,it can help the economy.It can help the manufacturers by lowering electricity prices and transporting raw material costs.But a sharp fall in energy prices often results from weakening economic growth.How?

Two factors behind the oil-price drop are-a weaker global economy and a stronger dollar.

Both could hurt the U.S economy by reducing exports,employment and spending and in turn could overweigh  the economic benefit of cheaper fuel.

A boom in U.S oil production has helped reduce dependence of foreign countries' oil,a result of drilling in North Dakota and Texas.If oil prices fell further,drilling would have to be slowed down because it would no longer profitable.Still oil has not fallen quite far enough for that to happen. Unless supplies drop,like production cut from OPEC or a sudden turnaround of increase in demand,prices could fall further.Because oil is priced in dollars,a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive and tends to reduce demand.The weaker global economic forecast combined with relatively stronger U.S economic growth raised the dollar's value against other currencies.

There is plenty of supply and not enough demand.Oil price plunged below $80 a barrel and energy stocks have fallen 16% since june 2014.

The lower global economic growth that is pulling down oil prices and U.S stocks will also squeeze U.S companies.The stronger dollar can hurt the U.S economy because it makes U.S goods costlier than foreign goods,so exports fall and imports raise.That can reduce economic activity and job growth.

Increase in U.S oil production have protected the US economy by keeping the oil prices from soaring during the turmoil in the middle east.To balance out the global supply and demand,expect OPEC to cut the production and send oil prices back up.

And either way you can make money  playing with airline and energy sectors.So keep your eyes on oil report.....